First financial futures inventory may drop plastic performance is strong utc行家

First financial futures: inventory performance may drop plastic stronger clients view the latest market Abstract: (1) from a seasonal point of view, especially the possibility of importing plastic plastic in November rose is relatively higher than the possibility of a decline, so we think that November may be stronger in plastic. (2) from the main influence factors of plastic, LLDPE10 month warehouse registration gradually decreased, suggesting that the current spot market outlook may turn positive, there are still plastic stocks in November may decline, and from the historical situation of crude oil market in November may be strong, and from the current U.S. crude oil technology trend, the focus shifted obviously. And reach in OPEC and non OPEC production agreement expected, crude oil is expected to provide support for the cost of plastic from the end. (3) from the polyolefin spatial structure, cost of capital, we think LLDPE1701 still need to focus on the short-term support near 9580-9760, below the second support level should pay attention to near 9230-9390, if prices rise further, can focus first on the previous high of 9935 near the pressure, the second pressure to focus on near the 10000 mark integer. (4) we think we can take the bargain strategy, L1701 9580-9760 may be concerned about the short-term bottom near the support, if not below can take advantage of bargain hunting, second support may be concerned about the near 9230-9390, above the pressure may be concerned about the early highs near 9935, if it continues to focus on breakthrough pressure near 10000, if the operation stand above the corresponding pressure can homeopathic positions, stop in place near the corresponding key support. Risk points need to focus on whether the U.S. presidential election, black swan, crude oil plummeted. In November, a plastic stock rose a larger probability from polyethylene plastic, since 2007 November despite the plastic spot price and the price rise in plastic PE probability is 50%, but imports from, since 2010 October rose in its probability is low, but imported from LLDPE, increases the probability is 71%, and the price ratio is significantly greater than the period 1, or imply that the imported LLDPE once rose may be larger, so overall, we believe that in November the possibility of plastic spot rise higher than the possibility of falling. Table 1:11 polyethylene plastic price changes in the data source: Wind, the first financial futures note: price changes for the end of the month with respect to the main influencing factors on at the end of two, the plastics market analysis 1, registered warehouse receipts decreased in October, market confidence may recover somewhat in Figure 1: DCE LLDPE warehouse registration data sources: Wind, first financial from the futures DCE LLDPE warehouse registration situation, as of October 27th, LLDPE registered warehouse receipts 7791, compared with the end of September to reduce 2951, compared to mid September to reduce 4135, LLDPE registered warehouse receipts continued to decline or imply that the market outlook is likely to gradually shift the optimistic. 2, the East China region in November than in stock or reduced Figure 2: East china.相关的主题文章: